Table 7.19

Revenue Estimates


  How is your state's official revenue estimate
(current law) for the budget generated?
  Source of authority for providing revenue estimates for the
executive budget (a)
Revenue estimates
binding on:
  Who revises the formal revenue estimate after budget enactment?  
FIPS State or other
jurisdiction
Consensus
forecast
Executive
branch
agency
Separate
forecasts by
exec and leg
branches
Consensus forecasting group name
or executive branch entity that
produces forecast
Constitutional Statutory Executive
order
Informal Governor's
proposed
budget
Enacted
budget
Statutory
requirement to
publish revenue
estimates?
When are official revenue
estimates released?
Budget
agency
Revenue
agency
Board/
commission/
consensus
forecasting group
Governor Legislature Other
(specify)
Revenue
projections are
publicly released
for how many
years beyond
the current
budget cycle?
State has
council of
economic
advisors?
01Alabama (b)Executive Budget Office (Department of Finance)

January - March
02Alaska (c)Department of Revenue

April, December10
04Arizona (d)

January and April/May4
05Arkansas (e)Department of Finance and Administration - Office of Economic Analysis and Tax Research

November/May2
06California (f)California Department of Finance

January and May3
08Colorado (g)Office of State Planning and Budgeting

Quarterly: June 20, September 20, December 20, March 201
09Connecticut (h)No official name. See notes.

Monthly for executive budget agency's fiscal projections; November, January and April for consensus3
10Delaware (i)Delaware Economic Financial Advisory Council (DEFAC)

September, December, March, May, June4
12Florida (j)Revenue Estimating Conference

Fall/Winter/Summer5
13Georgia (k)Governor's Office of Planning and Budget - State Economist

January4
15Hawaii (l)Council on Revenues

June, September, January, and March6
16Idaho (m)

0January, August1
17IllinoisRevenue Reporting Unit in the Governor's Office of Management and Budget

Typically in February with Governor's Budget3
18IndianaRevenue Forecast Technical Committee

December (every year); April (odd years)2
19IowaRevenue Estimating Conference

October, December, March/April1
20KansasConsensus Revenue Estimating Group

November and April2
21Kentucky (n)Consensus Forecasting Group

December (odd years) and by request (see notes)3
22Louisiana (o)Revenue Estimating Conference

Various. See notes.4
23Maine (p)Revenue Forecasting Committee

March, December2
24Maryland (q)Board of Revenue Estimates

December, March, and September4
25MassachusettsExecutive Office for Administration and Finance, House Committee on Ways and Means, and Senate Committee on Ways and Means

By January 151
26MichiganConsensus Revenue Estimating Conference

January and May4
27Minnesota (r)State Economist and Economic Analysis Division in conjunction with Budget Division

February, November4
28MississippiRevenue Estimating Group

November, March/April1
29Missouri (s)No official name. See notes.

December or January1
30Montana (t)Office of Budget and Program Planning

November 15 (even years)
31NebraskaNebraska Economic Forecasting Advisory Board

Feb, Apr, Oct (odd years) / Feb, Oct (even years)2
32Nevada (u)Economic Forum

December (even years) and May (odd years)2
33New HampshireGovernor's Office

0July 1st of each year from the Biennial Budget. The biennium begins the odd numbered year.1
34New Jersey (v)The Department of the Treasury

February and May1
35New MexicoConsensus Revenue Estimating Group (CREG)

0August and December5
36New York (w)No official name. See notes.

April/ May, July/ August, October/ November, January, February, March4
37North CarolinaNo official name

Revenue estimate is provided before the Governors recommends the budget and after April of each yr.3
38North Dakota (x)Office of Management & Budget (see notes)

March, August and December (even years) and February (odd years)2
39Ohio (y)Office of Budget and Management / Department of Taxation

Typically January or February (with Executive Budget), June
40Oklahoma (z)State Board of Equalization (see notes)

December, February and June1
41Oregon (aa)Office of Economic Analysis

March, June, September and December8
42Pennsylvania (bb)Department of Revenue and the Office of the Budget

May/June (Budget Enactment)4
44Rhode Island (cc)Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference

November and May1
45South Carolina (dd)Board of Economic Advisors

November, February, and April3
46South Dakota (ee)Bureau of Finance and Management

December, March, July1
47TennesseeState Funding Board

November
48TexasTexas Comptroller of Public Accounts

January (odd years)
49Utah (ff)No official name. See notes.

December and February (budget point forecast); June and October (updated range forecasts)1
50Vermont (gg)Emergency Board

January, July4
51Virginia (hh)Joint Advisory Board of Economists

December4
53Washington (ii)The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council

June, September, November, and February (even years) and March (odd years)2
54West Virginia (jj)West Virginia Tax Department

January4
55Wisconsin (kk)Department of Revenue (on behalf of the Department of Administration)

Each January and April/May odd years, November 20 (even).
56Wyoming (ll)Consensus Revenue Estimating Group (CREG)

January and October4
State total281012

9

35153536461072498118
11Dist. of Columbia (mm)Office of Revenue Analysis

February, June, September, December3

Source:

National Association of State Budget Officers, Budget Processes in the States, 2021.

Key:

✓ — Yes.
✕ — No.

Footnotes:

(a)

Alabama – Section 41-4-83, Code of Alabama 1975 (4.) A summary of the revenue, classified according to sources, estimated to be received by the government during each of the budget years, in comparison with the actual revenue received by the government during each of the completed fiscal years covered by the last preceding budget and the estimated income for the fiscal year in progress.

Alaska – AS 37.07.060(b)(4).

Arkansas – Arkansas Code Annotated 10-3-1404.

California – California Constitution (Article IV, Section 12).

Colorado – 24-75-201, C.R.S.

Connecticut – CGS Sec. 2-36c.

Delaware – Title 29 of the Delaware Code, Section 6534.

Georgia – Ga. Const. Art. III, § IX, Para. II

Hawaii – Section 7 of Article VII, Hawaii Constitution; Part VI of Chapter 37, Hawaii Revised Statutes.

Illinois – State Budget Law (15 ILCS 20/50-5) and (15 ILCS 20/50-10).

Iowa – Iowa Code 8.22A.

Kansas – KSA 75-67014 et seq.

Kentucky – KRS 48.115 and 48.120.

Louisiana – Louisiana Constitution, Article VII, Section 10.

Maine – 5 MRSA, chapter 151-B.

Maryland – Md. STATE FINANCE AND PROCUREMENT Code Ann. Section 6-104.

Massachusetts – G.L. c. 29 § 5b.

Michigan – Article V, Section 18 of Michigan Constitution of 1963; Public Act 431 of 1984, as amended, sections 367a-367f.

Minnesota – MS 270C.11 Subd. 5.

Mississippi – §27-103-139.

Missouri – Article IV, Section 24.

Montana – 17-7-111, Montana Code Annotated.

Nebraska – Nebraska Revised Statutes, Sections 77-27,156 through 77-27,159.

Nevada – NRS 353.

New Hampshire – There is a statutory requirement (RSA 9:8) placed on the Governor to produce a revenue estimate that represent in his/her judgement a level to accompany his/her recommendations in the respect to the provision to be made for meeting the revenue and expenditure needs of the state for each of the fiscal years on the ensuing biennium.

New York – NYS Constitution and State Finance Law – STF § 23. Plans and estimates.

North Dakota – NDCC 54-44.1-03.

Ohio – ORC 107.03 and 126.02.

Oklahoma – Oklahoma Constitution Article 10 Section x-23.

Oregon – Oregon Revised Statute Chapter 291 (ORS 291.342).

Pennsylvania – Article VIII Section 12 of the Pennsylvania Constitution.

Rhode Island – http://webserver.rilin.state.ri.us/statutes/title35/35-16/35-16-1.htm.

South Carolina – SC Code of Laws 11-9-1110 thru 11-9-1130 (Board of Econ Advisors).

Tennessee – TCA 9-4-5104, 5105, 5106, and 5202.

Texas – Art. III, Sec. 49a of the Texas Constitution.

Vermont – 32 VSA Sec. 305a.

Virginia – § 2.2-1503, Code of Virginia.

Wisconsin – Executive: s. 16.43 and s. 16.46; Legislative: s. 13.95.

Wyoming – W.S. 9-2-1002 (a) (xxi).

District of Columbia – D.C. Code § 1–204.24d (5).

(b)

Revenue estimates are made public with the release of the governor’s recommended budget. These dates vary whereas the first year of the term, they are released in March; the second and third years of the term, they are released in February; and the fourth year of the term, they are released in January. Section 41-4-3.1, Code of Alabama 1975 requires reporting with forecast of revenues by Department of Finance, Section 41-4-85, Code of Alabama 1975 requires that on or before the first day of the third month next preceding each regular business session of the Legislature, the Department of Finance shall prepare an estimate of the total income of the government for each budget year, in which the several items of income shall be listed and classified according to source or character and by departments, boards, bureaus, commissions, agencies, officers and institutions of the state producing such funds and in which such items shall be compared with the income actually received during the completed fiscal years covered by the next preceding budget and the estimated income to be received during the fiscal year then in progress. Department of Finance revises budget estimates after budget enactment.

(c)

Alaska has statutory budget requirements – Alaska Statute AS 37.07.020(c) The source of authority for providing revenue estimates for the executive budget reside in AS 37.07.060(b)(4) and Administrative Order No. 27.

(d)

Separate revenue forecasts are produced by the Governor’s Office and Strategic Planning and by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee staff, then negotiated and imbedded within the appropriations acts. Statute requires the Governor’s Office to have constantly available a status of the state’s financial condition, which must include revenue estimate. The Governor’s Office of Strategic Planning and Budgeting is responsible for both revenue forecasts and the governor’s budget. There is no “formal” revenue estimate. Both, the Governor’s Office and legislative staff continually monitor and publicly discuss and comment about the flow of revenue. However, nothing formal is produced.

(e)

Revenue estimates are prepared by the administrator of the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration- Office of Economic Analysis and Tax Research.

(f)

The California Constitution provides the authority to provide revenue estimates to the governor. However, the governor exercises this authority through the Department of Finance.

(g)

Quarterly revenue estimates are prepared by both the Legislative Council (nonpartisan full-time economics staff) and by our office. These forecasts are presented to the Joint Budget Committee each quarter. The JBC is required to balance its budget to one of the two forecasts, and the choice of forecast is at the JBC’s sole discretion.

(h)

No official name for consensus forecast group; Office of Policy and Management and Office of Fiscal Analysis issue joint letter with consensus forecast. The January consensus revenue estimate must be used by the governor in presenting his proposed budget. The consensus forecast forms the “current services” revenue baseline, which is then adjusted for policy-based revenue changes proposed by the governor.

(i)

Per Delaware Code (Title 29, Section 6534 a), the governor is required to submit to all members of the General Assembly and the controller general an estimate of anticipated general fund revenues by major categories for the current and next immediate fiscal year. Such report shall be made not later than the 25th day of September, December, March and May, and the 20th day of June. The official general fund revenue and expenditure estimates are established through a joint resolution, passed by both houses of the Legislature and signed by the governor prior to the enactment of appropriations.

(j)

Section 216.135, Florida Statutes requires state agencies and the judicial branch to use official information developed by the consensus estimating conference. While the legislative branch is not specifically required, in practice they do use such estimates.

(k)

The governor appoints a state economist to assist in creating revenue forecasts for the budget. The governor’s revenue estimate included with his proposed budget submitted to the General Assembly is binding for the legislature unless subsequently revised by the governor. The governor also appoints a Council of Economic Advisors independent of the state economist to provide comparative revenue estimates and information on the economic forecast for the state.

(l)

Statutes require that estimates “shall be considered”; differing revenue estimates by the governor or legislature may be used if “fact and reasons” are made public.

(m)

The revenue estimate is revised informally and only used in an advisory capacity in case the state spending needs to be adjusted after budget enactment.

(n)

Revenue forecast is released in December of each odd-numbered years and when requested for a revision made by the Legislative Research Commission or the state budget director. The three-year revenue projections beyond the current budget cycle is done within a “planning estimate” by the Consensus Forecasting Group in August of each odd-numbered year.

(o)

The Revenue Estimating Conference usually meets in December or January to set the revenue for the executive budget, again in April or May to update the revenue forecast during the legislative session, and then as necessary.

(p)

The Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission consists of five members: two members appointed by the governor; one member recommended for appointment to the governor by the president of the Senate; one member recommended for appointment to the governor by the speaker of the House of Representatives; and one member appointed by the other members of the commission. The Revenue Forecasting Committee consists of six members: the state budget officer, the associate commissioner for tax policy, the state economist, an economist on the faculty of the University of Maine System selected by the chancellor, the director of the Office of Fiscal and Program Review and another member of the Legislature’s nonpartisan staff familiar with revenue estimating issues appointed by the Legislative Council.

(q)

The governor may propose additional revenues beyond those recommended by the Board of Revenue Estimates. These additional revenues are generally tied to proposed legislation or other actions to administratively increase revenues and must be detailed in the governor’s budget submission. Also, a Revenue Monitoring Group that includes representatives from the Department of Budget and Management, Department of Legislative Services, the state treasurer’s office and the comptroller’s office meets monthly to work on consensus projections.

(r)

Minnesota Management and Budget prepares five-year revenues estimates that are formally published in November and February each year (Minnesota Statutes 16A.103). The Governor’s biennial budget submitted in each odd-numbered year included revenue estimates for the current fiscal year and the next two biennia, or four additional years. Economic updates are issued in January, April, July and October of each year. The Economic Analysis Division, under the direction of the state economist, serves as the formal revenue estimating group for the state of Minnesota. When the enacted budget makes changes impacted revenue, the Department of Revenue estimates the revenue change and MMB publishes the changes to the overall revenue impact.

(s)

There is no official name of the consensus forecast group, which consists of staff from the budget office, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and a professional from the University of Missouri-Columbia. Consensus revenue forecasting with the legislature has been the practice most years since 1987, but is not required by statute. While the budget office revises the working revenue estimate, it is not usually considered the “official” estimate if a consensus was reached for that fiscal year. In some years, the budget office, Governor and legislature do revise the “official” estimate.

(t)

Formal Revenue Estimate would only be revised at the next legislative session, not in the interim. A three year revenue estimate is adopted each legislative session including the current fiscal year and the upcoming biennium.

(u)

Economic Forum hears revenue forecasts from legislative and budget economists and major revenue collecting agencies before determining a general fund revenue forecast. http://leg.state.nv.us/NRS/NRS-353.html#NRS353Sec226.

(v)

The Office of Revenue and Economic Analysis and Office of Management and Budget collaborate to provide revenue estimates. Official revenue estimates are made for both the current fiscal year and the budget fiscal year. The governor formally certifies the revenue estimates per the New Jersey State Constitution.

(w)

New York State uses a consensus revenue forecast process to provide a common agreement on tax receipts as a precursor to legislative deliberations on the executive budget proposal. The consensus economic and revenue forecasting process is conducted by the chairperson and ranking minority member of the state Senate Finance Committee, the chairperson and ranking minority member of the state Assembly Ways and Means Committee and the director of the budget. If the governor and the Legislature fail to reach consensus, the state comptroller is required to issue a binding forecast on tax receipts as a precursor to legislative deliberations. Following legislative deliberations and an enacted budget agreement, the Division of the Budget is responsible for issuing the State’s Financial Plan, including preparation of the state’s economic forecast and official financial projections for receipts and disbursements.

(x)

Office of Management and Budget produces forecast in cooperation with the North Dakota state tax commissioner and Moody’s.

(y)

The Office of Budget and Management and the Department of Taxation jointly prepare revenue estimates.

(z)

State Board of Equalization formally proposes a forecast by the Office of Management and Enterprise Services and the Tax Commission. Board of Equalization, with staff support from OMES, approves the revenue estimate for the governor’s budget. Budget agency only revises estimates in a mid-year shortfall. Revenue estimates are binding on the Governor’s budget and enacted. However, the governor and Legislature can propose/enact increases/decreases of revenue. Under the Open Records/Meeting Act, revenue estimates are “published.”

(aa)

Revenue agency = Office of Economic Analysis.

(bb)

The creation of the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) in 2010 has provided an additional revenue estimate against which Department of Revenue estimates can be assessed. Since the IFO was established, the Department of Revenue estimates have remained the source of the commonwealth’s official revenue estimate.

(cc)

The Council of Economic Advisors was created during the 2013 session of the General Assembly.

(dd)

First forecast is on/before November 10; 2nd forecast is on/before February 15. Additional revisions may be made after the February forecast if the BEA determines that economic conditions have changed.

(ee)

The first revenue estimate is coordinated with the release of the governor’s recommended budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Those estimates are then revised and adopted in March during legislative session. Finally, a third revenue estimate is performed in July to review revenue estimates as adopted in March.

(ff)

There isn’t a formal name for the consensus revenue groups, which includes Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst. The economic indicator projections used in the consensus process are formed through the state’s Revenue Assumptions Working Group (RAWG), which is comprised of state economists and field experts from the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst, Utah State Tax Commission, Utah Department of Workforce Services, and the University of Utah, among other representatives. The Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst, and Utah State Tax Commission all use the same RAWG indicators for the estimates that go into the consensus calculations.

(gg)

The Emergency Board, chaired by the governor and comprised of legislative leaders from both chambers. There is no Council of Economic Advisors; each branch utilizes contracted professional economic services firms to provide their respective forecasts, which are then reconciled as part of the Emergency Board process.

(hh)

Revenue estimates are provided for the two years of the budget cycle being presented to or amended by the General Assembly and an additional 4 years of revenue projections are included with these projections for a total of six years.

(ii)

For the state’s General Fund, the official revenue estimates for currently authorized revenues are done by the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council. For accounts not estimated by this body, revenue estimates are done by the administering agency and the budget agency. In the case of major funds, such as the Motor Vehicle Account, legislative staff are also part of the revenue estimating work group.

(jj)

Revenue estimates are made in January except for year following gubernatorial election, then revenue estimates are made in February.

(kk)

Revenue agency revises estimates after budget enactment for current biennium in November 20th Report. Legislature revises estimates in each January and in April/May of odd years.

(ll)

The group that revises the formal revenue estimate is the CREG.

(mm)

The Chief Financial Officer convenes panels of experts to advise on revenues and the economy, but there is no statutory council of economic advisors in the District of Columbia.